The BP Outlook describes a future that is different in several respects from what many expected just a short while ago.
We still expect global energy demand to grow – by 36% between 2011 and 2030 - driven by the emerging economies. Without continuous improvements in energy efficiency, demand would have to grow much more rapidly simply to sustain economic growth. Supply patterns are shifting.The Outlook demonstrates how unconventional oil and gas are playing a major role in meeting global demand. Over the period to 2030, the US becomes nearly self-sufficient in energy, while China and India become increasingly import-dependent.
This report illuminates some of the consequences.The implications are far-reaching. Indeed, I believe they will stretch far beyond the boundaries of our industry. As always, the numbers that make up this Outlook reveal long-term trends and highlight potential “fault lines” in the system; in short, their job is to convey the underlying challenges and opportunities we all face in producing and consuming energy. What messages do we draw from this Outlook? It underlines the power of competition and market forces in driving efficiency and innovation – importantly not only in unlocking new supplies such as unconventional oil and gas but also in improving energy efficiency and consequently limiting the growth of carbon emissions.
A second message is the importance of technology and innovation, which underpin the key trends that are highlighted in the Outlook, from the development of shale resources to the efficiency of power generation and improved vehicle fuel economy. Third, the Outlook highlights the way energy resources are opening up.The energy industry is highly competitive and investment will flow to the places that possess the right resources below ground and the right conditions above it. Highlighting the “above ground” factors that have made the US and Canada engines for energy innovation can be instructive for other nations seeking to develop their domestic energy resources.
The overall conclusion is that increased demand can be met as long as competition is present to drive innovation, unlock resources and encourage efficiency.This is why we remain optimistic the world will produce the energy it needs to fuel continued economic growth. We hope you find the 2013 edition of the BP Energy Outlook 2030 a useful addition to the global energy discussion. BP Energy Outlook 2030 – January 2013, BP p.l.c.
Helgi Library 
