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How Many Electric Cars Will Be Sold in 2040?

World | March 21, 2016
Excel Sheet

Electric cars have been around longer than you might think – they were first invented early in the 19th century – but were quickly overshadowed by their oil-guzzling counterparts, an article by Stéphanie Thomson at World Economic Forum explains.

But electric vehicles might be set for a revival, according to Bloomberg - Electric vehicles are set to get a whole lot cheaper!

While many people liked the idea behind electric vehicles, even with government subsidies they’re too expensive:

One of the reasons for the price difference between electric and conventional vehicles is scale. Of the billions of cars on the world’s roads, only 1% of new cars are electric, which means higher production costs. Another is the cost of the batteries that power electric cars. And this is where the big changes are happening. Battery prices fell by 35% last year, and it’s a trend that will probably continue.

As the price of batteries fall, electric vehicles will soon – as early as 2022, according to Bloomberg – be as cheap as conventional cars. Within less than 30 years, a long-range electric vehicle could cost around $22,000, according to Bloomberg’s analysis, and by 2040, the market share will have jumped from 1% to 35%.

While these developments are good news for those who see electric cars as the key to a greener future, it adds even more pressure on the oil industry. But OPEC isn’t too worried about electric cars reducing the demand for fossil fuels in the near future. “Without a technology breakthrough, battery-electric vehicles are not expected to gain significant market share in the near future,” the organization said in its annual World Oil Outlook. The report goes on to predict that in 2040, 94% of cars will still be powered by fossil fuels.

Let's see who will be right, in the end.