Who Will Win Euro 2016 by Goldman Sachs?

Sport & Games | June 19, 2016
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Excel Sheet

Goldman Sachs' economic research predicts host nation France to win the UEFA European Championship, saying that its models suggest the French team has a 23.1% chance of victory, compared to 19.9% for 2014 World Cup winners Germany. Coming in third place are current holders Spain, with a 13.6% chance. 

Perhaps a little surprisingly for British fans, England is seen as the fourth most likely to win, with a 10.5% chance of doing so, Business Insider UK added. 

At the other end of the scale are Albania, Wales and Northern Ireland. Goldman estimates the likelihood of either side taking home the cup is 0.1%.

Using historical performance data for each team-most importantly the Elo rating system originally devised to rank chess players-we estimate a set of probabilities that a particular team will reach a particular round, up to and including the championship. 

The bank's predictions are pretty much in line with the odds being offered by bookmakers right now. Ladbrokes currently has the same four teams as the most likely winners of the tournament.